Dender 2–2 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Dender

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

KV Mechelen

N. Rôdes 43'

F. Ferraro 22'

S. Welsh 31'

B. Antonio 2'

5/24/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 10DENDER Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Dender45%

×Draw24%

KV Mechelen31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenderExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.32

Dender

1.65

KV Mechelen

1.32

Dender creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

0.98

1.66

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dender

1.29

KV Mechelen

0.98

allows per match

Dender

1.66

KV Mechelen

2.00

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Dender-0.41scores less

KV Mechelen+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dender ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dender or draw

69%

Dender or KV Mechelen

76%

Draw or KV Mechelen

55%

Winning margin

Dender wins by 2+

23%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dender 1+ goals

81%

Dender 2+ goals

49%

Dender 3+ goals

23%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

73%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

38%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dender (draw refunded)

60%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dender at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 17 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dender attack 1.29 + KV Mechelen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

KV Mechelen attack 0.98 + Dender defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dender scores more

45%

level

24%

KV Mechelen scores more

31%

Dender at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dender will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Welsh

KV Mechelen · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

14'

14'

14'

22'

F. Ferraro↳ B. Goncalves

31'

S. Welsh↳ R. Schoofs

43'

N. Rôdes

61'

R. M'Barki← F. Ferraro

61'

D. Acquah← L. Hens

67'

N. Storm← B. Bafdili

67'

P. Pflücke← B. Antonio

67'

D. Foulon← L. Lauberbach

67'

José Marsà← M. Zekri

76'

J. Attah Kadiri← M. Berte

78'

M. Konaté← R. Belghali

85'

Ridwane M'Barki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenderKV

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots5

1.58Expected Goals (xG)0.54

7Corners0

9Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target3

6Off Target1

4Blocked1

13Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

594Total Passes308

518Accurate Passes227

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.59Goals Prevented0.59

Discipline

9Fouls7

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2