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Kufstein vs FC Liefering — Regionalliga - West 2018

Kufstein
Kufstein
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Liefering
FC Liefering
8/10/2018Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 3Kufstein-Arena (Kufstein)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kufstein23%
×Draw21%
FC Liefering56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kufstein
1.23
FC Liefering
2.03

FC Liefering creates 65% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kufstein
1.03
FC Liefering
2.81

allows per match

Kufstein
1.25
FC Liefering
1.44

finishing

Kufstein+0.00on par
FC Liefering+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kufstein ↓

FC Liefering →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kufstein or draw
44%
Kufstein or FC Liefering
79%
Draw or FC Liefering
77%

Winning margin

Kufstein wins by 2+
9%
FC Liefering wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kufstein 1+ goals
71%
Kufstein 2+ goals
35%
Kufstein 3+ goals
13%
FC Liefering 1+ goals
87%
FC Liefering 2+ goals
60%
FC Liefering 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kufstein (draw refunded)
29%
FC Liefering (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kufstein at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

FC Liefering away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kufstein attack 1.03 + FC Liefering defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Liefering attack 2.81 + Kufstein defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kufstein scores more
23%
level
21%
FC Liefering scores more
56%

FC Liefering at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kufstein vs FC Liefering

FC Liefering beat Kufstein 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on August 10, 2018.

The match was played at Kufstein-Arena (Kufstein).