FC Liefering 4–2 Kufstein: Result & Stats

FC Liefering

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kufstein

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Akademie Liefering - Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Liefering61%

×Draw18%

Kufstein21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LieferingExpected goals in this matchKufstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.50

FC Liefering

2.63

Kufstein

1.50

FC Liefering creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

FC Liefering

2.25

Kufstein

2.00

allows per match

FC Liefering

1.00

Kufstein

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Liefering+0.00on par

Kufstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Liefering ↓

Kufstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

FC Liefering or draw

79%

FC Liefering or Kufstein

82%

Draw or Kufstein

39%

Winning margin

FC Liefering wins by 2+

40%

Kufstein wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Liefering 1+ goals

93%

FC Liefering 2+ goals

73%

FC Liefering 3+ goals

48%

Kufstein 1+ goals

78%

Kufstein 2+ goals

44%

Kufstein 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Liefering (draw refunded)

75%

Kufstein (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Liefering at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Kufstein away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Liefering attack 2.25 + Kufstein defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Kufstein attack 2.00 + FC Liefering defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Liefering scores more

61%

level

18%

Kufstein scores more

21%

FC Liefering at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff