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FC Liefering vs Kufstein — Regionalliga - West 2018

FC Liefering
FC Liefering
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Kufstein
Kufstein
3/23/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 18Sportzentrum Anif (Anif)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Liefering70%
×Draw16%
Kufstein14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Liefering
2.76
Kufstein
1.19

FC Liefering creates 132% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

creates per match

FC Liefering
3.63
Kufstein
1.43

allows per match

FC Liefering
0.94
Kufstein
1.89

finishing

FC Liefering+0.00on par
Kufstein+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Liefering ↓

Kufstein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Liefering or draw
86%
FC Liefering or Kufstein
84%
Draw or Kufstein
30%

Winning margin

FC Liefering wins by 2+
49%
Kufstein wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Liefering 1+ goals
94%
FC Liefering 2+ goals
76%
FC Liefering 3+ goals
51%
Kufstein 1+ goals
70%
Kufstein 2+ goals
33%
Kufstein 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Liefering (draw refunded)
83%
Kufstein (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Liefering at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Kufstein away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.89 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Liefering attack 3.63 + Kufstein defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.76

Kufstein attack 1.43 + FC Liefering defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Liefering scores more
70%
level
16%
Kufstein scores more
14%

FC Liefering at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Liefering vs Kufstein

Kufstein beat FC Liefering 3-1 in Regionalliga - West on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Anif (Anif).