Krylya Sovetov 2–1 Baltika: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

8/27/2023

Premier League · Round 6Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Krylya Sovetov38%

×Draw28%

Baltika34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Krylya Sovetov

1.22

Baltika

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 30 away

1.31

creates per match

1.10

1.17

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.31

Baltika

1.10

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.17

Baltika

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

66%

Krylya Sovetov or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

62%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

16%

Baltika wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

70%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

34%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

12%

Baltika 1+ goals

68%

Baltika 2+ goals

32%

Baltika 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

53%

Baltika (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Baltika attack 1.10 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

38%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

34%

Krylya Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff