Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Baltika: Result & Stats

Krylia Sovetov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika

A. Rahmanovic 17'

B. Gil 62'

8/9/2025

Premier League · Round 4Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Krylia Sovetov38%

×Draw28%

Baltika34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Krylia Sovetov

1.22

Baltika

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 30 away

1.31

creates per match

1.10

1.17

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.31

Baltika

1.10

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.17

Baltika

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

66%

Krylia Sovetov or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

62%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

16%

Baltika wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

70%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

34%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

12%

Baltika 1+ goals

68%

Baltika 2+ goals

32%

Baltika 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

53%

Baltika (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Baltika attack 1.10 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

38%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

34%

Krylia Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Pesjakov

Krylia Sovetov · G

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Ilzat Akhmetov

17'

A. Rahmanovic

29'

Fernando Costanza

46'

I. Oleynikov← J. Marin

46'

T. Yenne← N. Titkov

49'

Andrey Mendel

62'

Sergey Babkin

62'

B. Gil↳ V. Saus

63'

M. Vityugov← V. Rakov

63'

M. Banjac← Fernando Costanza

69'

A. Mokhammad← B. Gil

69'

C. Offor← M. Beveev

74'

Maksim VityugovPenalty cancelled

81'

Nathan Gassama

81'

A. Mourid← A. Mendel

83'

A. Sutormin← A. Rahmanovic

83'

V. Ignatenko← N. Rasskazov

85'

90+1'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KryliaBaltika

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots17

1.24Expected Goals (xG)2.16

4Corners7

10Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots17

2On Target5

2Off Target9

3Blocked3

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

332Total Passes370

231Accurate Passes281

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls17

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika

Krylia Sovetov and Baltika drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Rahmanovic (17'), B. Gil (62').

Baltika controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.

Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika