Baltika 2–1 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Krylya Sovetov

4/20/2024

Premier League · Round 25Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika50%

×Draw26%

Krylya Sovetov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.00

Baltika

1.53

Krylya Sovetov

1.00

Baltika creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

1.27

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Krylya Sovetov

1.03

allows per match

Baltika

0.97

Krylya Sovetov

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

75%

Baltika or Krylya Sovetov

74%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

50%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

25%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

78%

Baltika 2+ goals

45%

Baltika 3+ goals

20%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

63%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

26%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

67%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baltika scores more

50%

level

26%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

25%

Baltika at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff