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Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
2/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krylia Sovetov14%
×Draw22%
Baltika64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
0.71
Baltika
1.84

Baltika creates 159% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.30
Baltika
2.78

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
0.90
Baltika
0.11

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
36%
Krylia Sovetov or Baltika
78%
Draw or Baltika
86%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
4%
Baltika wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
51%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
16%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
4%
Baltika 1+ goals
84%
Baltika 2+ goals
55%
Baltika 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
18%
Baltika (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Baltika away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.30 + Baltika defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.71

Baltika attack 2.78 + Krylia Sovetov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
14%
level
22%
Baltika scores more
64%

Baltika at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Baltika

Baltika beat Krylia Sovetov 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 22, 2026.