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Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika — Cup 2019

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Preview
15:00
Baltika
Baltika
10/13/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 4Samara Arena
Big match
38%
Krylia Sovetov
model favours
38%24%38%

Baltika have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Krylia Sovetov38%
×Draw24%
Baltika38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.58
Baltika
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.88
Baltika
1.43

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.76
Baltika
1.29

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
62%
Krylia Sovetov or Baltika
76%
Draw or Baltika
62%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
19%
Baltika wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
79%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
47%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
21%
Baltika 1+ goals
80%
Baltika 2+ goals
47%
Baltika 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
50%
Baltika (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.88 + Baltika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Baltika attack 1.43 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
38%
level
24%
Baltika scores more
38%

Krylia Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sovetov
LLLD
Baltika
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika — Match Preview

Krylia Sovetov face Baltika on October 13, 2026 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Krylia Sovetov host Baltika at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.