Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Kristiansund BK

Preview

14:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF

7/18/2026

Eliteserien · Round 14Kristiansund Stadion

45%

Sarpsborg 08 FF

model favours

32%23%45%

Kristiansund BK score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Kristiansund BK32%

×Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.83

Kristiansund BK

1.52

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.83

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

1.61

2.05

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.04

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.61

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

2.05

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.99

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK+0.39scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

55%

Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08 FF

77%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

68%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

15%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

78%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

45%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

84%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

54%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

42%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.05 · 7 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.99 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.04 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.61 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

32%

level

23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

45%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3 in a row
Sarpsborg 08 FF have scored in 10 games running
71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (63% and 71% over 2.5)
Their last 3 meetings averaged just 0.7 goals
28% of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Kristiansund BK

Direct / counter-attacking

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Direct / counter-attacking

37%Possession42%

79%Pass accuracy78%

9.9Shots11.7

0.93xGBiggest gap1.59

Kristiansund BKSarpsborg 08 FF

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

1

Kristiansund BK

1

Draws

1

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Avg goals: 0.7BTTS: 0%

0–11–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

BK

LWLLL

FF

WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff