Kristiansund BK 0–1 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fredrikstad

S. Molde 71'

5/11/2025

Eliteserien · Round 6Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Kristiansund BK39%

×Draw25%

Fredrikstad36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.39

Kristiansund BK

1.45

Fredrikstad

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.65

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.29

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.65

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

64%

Kristiansund BK or Fredrikstad

75%

Draw or Fredrikstad

61%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

18%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

77%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

18%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

75%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

40%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

52%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

39%

level

25%

Fredrikstad scores more

36%

Kristiansund BK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Molde

Fredrikstad

7.9

Match Events

38'

Oskar Öhlenschlaeger

56'

S. Sorlokk← H. Skogvold

56'

R. R. Shein← O. Ohlenschlaeger

67'

F. Flex← M. Rakneberg

67'

M. Isah← S. Kilen

67'

71'

73'

76'

87'

A. Guessand← R. Corlu

87'

B. Faraas← E. Holten

88'

Daniel Eid

90+3'

Leonard Owusu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundFredrikstad

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots9

0.15Expected Goals (xG)1.10

2Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots9

1On Target3

2Off Target4

4Blocked2

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

476Total Passes314

387Accurate Passes216

81%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2