Fredrikstad 1–1 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kristiansund BK

F. Fall 45'

O. Sivertsen 54' (pen)

11/3/2024

Eliteserien · Round 27Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Fredrikstad52%

×Draw23%

Kristiansund BK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.16

Fredrikstad

1.79

Kristiansund BK

1.16

Fredrikstad creates 54% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

1.60

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Kristiansund BK

0.98

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Kristiansund BK

1.97

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Kristiansund BK-0.02on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

75%

Fredrikstad or Kristiansund BK

77%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

48%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

29%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

83%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

53%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

26%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

69%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

32%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

68%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.97 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kristiansund BK attack 0.98 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

52%

level

23%

Kristiansund BK scores more

25%

Fredrikstad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Fall

Fredrikstad · D

8.0

Match Events

45'

F. Fall↳ M. Bjørlo

46'

O. Sivertsen← C. Aasbak

52'

Erlend SegbergPenalty confirmed

54'

O. SivertsenPenalty

55'

Oskar Siira Sivertsen

64'

H. Skogvold← H. Johansen

64'

S. Sørløkk← J. Kjær

64'

P. Metcalfe← B. Hendriksson

76'

J. Bjartalíð← D. Eid

76'

A. Hopmark← M. Rakneberg

83'

W. Igor← A. Rønning

84'

S. Rafn← P. Aukland

88'

I. Jeličić← A. Ndour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadKristiansund

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots5

2.42Expected Goals (xG)0.87

4Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target2

5Off Target2

4Blocked1

12Inside Box2

0Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

507Total Passes373

411Accurate Passes285

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2