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Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
M. Traoré 59' (OG)
O. Sivertsen 45+4' (pen)
R. Alte 14'
M. Bjørlo 9' (pen)
7/8/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 13Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Kristiansund BK39%
×Draw25%
Fredrikstad36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund BK
1.45
Fredrikstad
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kristiansund BK
1.29
Fredrikstad
1.13

allows per match

Kristiansund BK
1.65
Fredrikstad
1.61

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par
Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw
64%
Kristiansund BK or Fredrikstad
75%
Draw or Fredrikstad
61%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
18%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
77%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
42%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
18%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
75%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
40%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
52%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more
39%
level
25%
Fredrikstad scores more
36%

Kristiansund BK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
O. SivertsenKristiansund BKKristiansund BK · F
8.6

Match Events

9'
M. BjørloPenalty
14'
R. Alte
19'
Morten Bjorlo
21'
Morten BjorloVAR
32'
Mikkel Rakneberg
45+4'
O. SivertsenPenalty
57'
M. Traoré← H. Johansen
58'
Maxwell Woledzi
59'
M. TraoréOwn goal
78'
Sigurd Kvile
79'
L. Begby← S. Rafn
79'
M. Nielsen← P. Aukland
79'
B. Hendriksson← S. Molde
79'
B. Skaret← S. Kvile
83'
A. Hopmark← C. Aasbak
83'
D. Tufekcic← O. Sivertsen
83'
L. Alvheim← P. Guèye
90+3'
H. Haugen← H. Sjåtil
90+3'
W. Igor← R. Alte

Possession

65%Kristiansund

Shots

20Kristiansund

Pass accuracy

53%Kristiansund

Statistics

KristiansundFredrikstad
Overview
65%Possession35%
20Total Shots13
9Corners8
12Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots13
9On Target4
5Off Target6
6Blocked3
14Inside Box7
6Outside Box6
Passing
65%Possession35%
510Total Passes269
448Accurate Passes206
88%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad

Kristiansund BK beat Fredrikstad 3-1 in Eliteserien on July 8, 2024.

Goals: M. Bjørlo (9' pen), R. Alte (14'), O. Sivertsen (45+4' pen), M. Traoré (59' o.g.).

Kristiansund BK controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.