Krasnodar 1–4 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Krasnodar

FT

1 – 4

PFC Sochi

6/13/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krasnodar25%

×Draw20%

PFC Sochi54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrasnodarExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.25

Krasnodar

1.50

PFC Sochi

2.25

PFC Sochi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

3.33

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Krasnodar

2.00

PFC Sochi

3.33

allows per match

Krasnodar

1.17

PFC Sochi

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw

46%

Krasnodar or PFC Sochi

80%

Draw or PFC Sochi

75%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+

11%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals

78%

Krasnodar 2+ goals

44%

Krasnodar 3+ goals

19%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

89%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

65%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)

32%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 2.00 + PFC Sochi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

PFC Sochi attack 3.33 + Krasnodar defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Krasnodar scores more

25%

level

20%

PFC Sochi scores more

54%

PFC Sochi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff