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Krasnodar vs PFC Sochi — Premier League 2018

Krasnodar
Krasnodar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
7/27/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Krasnodar56%
×Draw23%
PFC Sochi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar
1.79
PFC Sochi
1.01

Krasnodar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 89 away

creates per match

Krasnodar
1.92
PFC Sochi
1.08

allows per match

Krasnodar
0.93
PFC Sochi
1.66

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw
79%
Krasnodar or PFC Sochi
77%
Draw or PFC Sochi
44%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+
31%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals
83%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
53%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
26%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
64%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
27%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)
72%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.92 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.79

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Krasnodar scores more
56%
level
23%
PFC Sochi scores more
21%

Krasnodar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar vs PFC Sochi

Krasnodar beat PFC Sochi 3-0 in Premier League on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.