Krasava Ypsonas 2–0 Akritas: Result & Stats

Krasava Ypsonas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Akritas

M. Christofi 6'

M. Meira 4'

3/29/2025

League #319 · Promotion Round - 10Koinotiko Stadio Erimis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Krasava Ypsonas24%

×Draw26%

Akritas49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasava YpsonasExpected goals in this matchAkritas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.48

Krasava Ypsonas

0.95

Akritas

1.48

Akritas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

0.77

creates per match

1.57

1.38

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Krasava Ypsonas

0.77

Akritas

1.57

allows per match

Krasava Ypsonas

1.38

Akritas

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par

Akritas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Ypsonas ↓

Akritas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Krasava Ypsonas or draw

51%

Krasava Ypsonas or Akritas

74%

Draw or Akritas

76%

Winning margin

Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+

8%

Akritas wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals

61%

Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals

25%

Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals

7%

Akritas 1+ goals

77%

Akritas 2+ goals

43%

Akritas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)

33%

Akritas (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Ypsonas at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Akritas away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Ypsonas attack 0.77 + Akritas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Akritas attack 1.57 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Krasava Ypsonas scores more

24%

level

26%

Akritas scores more

49%

Akritas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Akritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Meira

6'

M. Christofi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff