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Akritas vs Krasava Ypsonas — League #319 2026

Akritas
Akritas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasava Ypsonas
Krasava Ypsonas
G. Chatzivasilis 80'
2/1/2025League #319League #319 · Promotion Round - 3Dimotiko Stadio Pegias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Akritas30%
×Draw29%
Krasava Ypsonas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akritas
0.97
Krasava Ypsonas
1.17

Krasava Ypsonas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Akritas
1.00
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21

allows per match

Akritas
1.14
Krasava Ypsonas
0.93

finishing

Akritas+0.00on par
Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akritas ↓

Krasava Ypsonas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akritas or draw
60%
Akritas or Krasava Ypsonas
71%
Draw or Krasava Ypsonas
70%

Winning margin

Akritas wins by 2+
11%
Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Akritas 1+ goals
62%
Akritas 2+ goals
25%
Akritas 3+ goals
7%
Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals
69%
Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals
33%
Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akritas (draw refunded)
43%
Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akritas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Krasava Ypsonas away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akritas attack 1.00 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Krasava Ypsonas attack 1.21 + Akritas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Akritas scores more
30%
level
29%
Krasava Ypsonas scores more
40%

Krasava Ypsonas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krasava Ypsonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
G. Chatzivasilis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #319: Akritas 1–0 Krasava Ypsonas

Akritas beat Krasava Ypsonas 1-0 in League #319 on February 1, 2025.

Goals: G. Chatzivasilis (80').

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Pegias in Peyia.