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Akritas vs Krasava Ypsonas — 1. Division 2019

Akritas
Akritas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Krasava Ypsonas
Krasava Ypsonas
N. Zinonos 12'
A. Bah 90' (pen)
P. Lipski 75'
D. Cheryshev 71'
3/1/20261. Division1. Division · Round 24Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Akritas35%
×Draw27%
Krasava Ypsonas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akritas
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 16 away

creates per match

Akritas
0.86
Krasava Ypsonas
0.94

allows per match

Akritas
1.64
Krasava Ypsonas
1.56

finishing

Akritas+0.00on par
Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akritas ↓

Krasava Ypsonas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Akritas or draw
62%
Akritas or Krasava Ypsonas
73%
Draw or Krasava Ypsonas
65%

Winning margin

Akritas wins by 2+
15%
Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Akritas 1+ goals
70%
Akritas 2+ goals
34%
Akritas 3+ goals
12%
Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals
72%
Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals
37%
Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Akritas (draw refunded)
47%
Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akritas at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

Krasava Ypsonas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akritas attack 0.86 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Krasava Ypsonas attack 0.94 + Akritas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Akritas scores more
35%
level
27%
Krasava Ypsonas scores more
38%

Krasava Ypsonas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krasava Ypsonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
A. BahKrasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas · F
8.3

Match Events

12'
N. Zinonos
16'
Issam Chebake
27'
Yassine Bahassa
46'
D. Cheryshev← Y. Bahassa
54'
Manuel De Iriondo
57'
P. Lipski← M. Do Couto
61'
E. Taffertshofer← A. Fernandez
61'
A. Limbombe← Y. Castro
64'
Kyriakos Antoniou
70'
A. Athanasiou← Carlitos
70'
G. Chatzivasilis← B. M. Manu
71'
D. Cheryshev
75'
P. Lipski
90+8'
Nearchos Zinonos
90+2'
Benito← J. Romo
90+4'
D. Ouedraogo← M. de Iriondo
90+2'
D. Ankeye← A. Bah
90'
A. BahPenalty

Possession

Akritas: 48Krasava: 5248%Akritas

Shots

Akritas: 11Krasava: 1911Akritas

Pass accuracy

Akritas: 82Krasava: 8150%Akritas

Statistics

AkritasKrasava
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots19
1.00Expected Goals (xG)2.66
4Corners4
14Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots19
2On Target10
5Off Target7
4Blocked2
5Inside Box10
6Outside Box9
Passing
48%Possession52%
428Total Passes397
352Accurate Passes323
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
7Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Akritas vs Krasava Ypsonas

Krasava Ypsonas beat Akritas 3-1 in 1. Division on March 1, 2026.

Goals: N. Zinonos (12'), D. Cheryshev (71'), P. Lipski (75'), A. Bah (90' pen).

Krasava Ypsonas controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.