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Kosmonosy vs Benátky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
FT
3 – 0
Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kosmonosy45%
×Draw22%
Benátky nad Jizerou33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
1.96
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.67

Kosmonosy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.67
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.71

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.63
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.25

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
67%
Kosmonosy or Benátky nad Jizerou
78%
Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou
55%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
25%
Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
86%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
58%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
31%
Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
81%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
50%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
57%
Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.71 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
45%
level
22%
Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
33%

Kosmonosy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosmonosy vs Benátky nad Jizerou

Kosmonosy beat Benátky nad Jizerou 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy in Kosmonosy.