Benátky nad Jizerou 1–1 Kosmonosy: Result & Stats

Benátky nad Jizerou

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kosmonosy

4/3/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 19Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou60%

×Draw20%

Kosmonosy20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benátky nad JizerouExpected goals in this matchKosmonosy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.17

Benátky nad Jizerou

2.19

Kosmonosy

1.17

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 87% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 51 away

2.40

creates per match

1.49

0.85

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou

2.40

Kosmonosy

1.49

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou

0.85

Kosmonosy

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Kosmonosy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Kosmonosy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw

80%

Benátky nad Jizerou or Kosmonosy

80%

Draw or Kosmonosy

40%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

38%

Kosmonosy wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

89%

Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

64%

Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

37%

Kosmonosy 1+ goals

69%

Kosmonosy 2+ goals

33%

Kosmonosy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

75%

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Kosmonosy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Kosmonosy defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.19

Kosmonosy attack 1.49 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more

60%

level

20%

Kosmonosy scores more

20%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Kosmonosy

Benátky nad Jizerou and Kosmonosy drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.

Benátky nad Jizerou vs Kosmonosy — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Kosmonosy