Korona Kielce 2–1 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

GKS Katowice

D. Błanik 90+4'

E. Shikavka 45+1'

O. Repka 83'

5/5/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Korona Kielce47%

×Draw24%

GKS Katowice29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.27

Korona Kielce

1.68

GKS Katowice

1.27

Korona Kielce creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.61

creates per match

1.13

1.42

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.61

GKS Katowice

1.13

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.42

GKS Katowice

1.74

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.18scores less

GKS Katowice-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

71%

Korona Kielce or GKS Katowice

76%

Draw or GKS Katowice

53%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

25%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

81%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

50%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

24%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

72%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

36%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

62%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.61 + GKS Katowice defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

GKS Katowice attack 1.13 + Korona Kielce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

47%

level

24%

GKS Katowice scores more

29%

Korona Kielce at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Błanik

Korona Kielce · F

7.9

Match Events

44'

Oskar Repka

45+1'

E. Shikavka↳ M. Fornalczyk

52'

B. Smolarczyk← K. Sotiriou

74'

M. Marzec← Borja Galán

74'

D. Drachal← A. Błąd

81'

M. Strzeboński← M. Remacle

81'

D. Bąk← E. Shikavka

82'

H. Zwoźny← M. Fornalczyk

82'

M. Mak← B. Nowak

82'

B. Baranowicz← K. Gruszkowski

83'

O. Repka↳ A. Czerwiński

89'

W. Kamiński← Nono

90+1'

Oskar Repka

90+1'

Oskar Repka

90+4'

D. Błanik↳ W. Długosz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KoronaGKS

Overview

40%Possession60%

21Total Shots13

1.75Expected Goals (xG)0.69

3Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots13

3On Target1

12Off Target7

6Blocked5

14Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

325Total Passes515

238Accurate Passes428

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1