Korona Kielce 0–1 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

GKS Katowice

D. Brzozowski 88'

12/10/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Korona Kielce55%

×Draw27%

GKS Katowice17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.66

Korona Kielce

1.42

GKS Katowice

0.66

Korona Kielce creates 115% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.09

creates per match

0.50

0.82

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.09

GKS Katowice

0.50

allows per match

Korona Kielce

0.82

GKS Katowice

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

83%

Korona Kielce or GKS Katowice

73%

Draw or GKS Katowice

45%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

28%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

76%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

41%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

17%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

48%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

14%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

76%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.09 + GKS Katowice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

GKS Katowice attack 0.50 + Korona Kielce defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

55%

level

27%

GKS Katowice scores more

17%

Korona Kielce at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'

D. Brzozowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff