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GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce — Ekstraklasa 2025

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
L. Klemenz 15'
D. Błanik 88'
Pedro Nuno 37' (pen)
11/4/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

GKS Katowice38%
×Draw24%
Korona Kielce38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.52
Korona Kielce
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.40
Korona Kielce
1.24

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.82
Korona Kielce
1.64

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.21scores more
Korona Kielce-0.36scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
62%
GKS Katowice or Korona Kielce
76%
Draw or Korona Kielce
62%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
18%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
78%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
45%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
20%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
78%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
45%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
50%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.82 · 18 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.64 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.40 + Korona Kielce defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Korona Kielce attack 1.24 + GKS Katowice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
38%
level
24%
Korona Kielce scores more
38%

GKS Katowice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. KlemenzGKS KatowiceGKS Katowice · D
7.7

Match Events

15'
L. Klemenz↳ B. Nowak
32'
Alan Czerwiński
37'
Pedro NunoPenalty
38'
S. Milewski← M. Kowalczyk
45+2'
Oskar Repka
46'
M. Mak← B. Nowak
46'
M. Remacle← Pedro Nuno
63'
H. Zwoźny← M. Pięczek
74'
D. Błanik← M. Fornalczyk
75'
D. Trejo← W. Długosz
77'
B. Jaroszek← L. Klemenz
88'
D. Błanik

Possession

61%GKS

Shots

13GKS

Pass accuracy

53%GKS

Statistics

GKSKorona
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots13
0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.42
7Corners6
7Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots13
5On Target4
2Off Target5
6Blocked4
9Inside Box8
4Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
490Total Passes321
401Accurate Passes237
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
5Offsides0

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce

Korona Kielce beat GKS Katowice 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on November 4, 2024.

Goals: L. Klemenz (15'), Pedro Nuno (37' pen), D. Błanik (88').

GKS Katowice controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.