Korona Kielce 3–3 Arka Gdynia: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Arka Gdynia

J. Łukowski 63', 28'

J. Kiełb 36'

A. Deja 86'

M. Rosołek 75'

M. Marcjanik 73'

5/29/2021

I Liga · Round 32Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Korona Kielce33%

×Draw26%

Arka Gdynia41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchArka Gdynia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.38

Korona Kielce

1.21

Arka Gdynia

1.38

Arka Gdynia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 85 away

1.29

creates per match

1.65

1.11

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.29

Arka Gdynia

1.65

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.11

Arka Gdynia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Arka Gdynia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

59%

Korona Kielce or Arka Gdynia

74%

Draw or Arka Gdynia

67%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

14%

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

70%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

34%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

12%

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

75%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

40%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

45%

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.29 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arka Gdynia attack 1.65 + Korona Kielce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

33%

level

26%

Arka Gdynia scores more

41%

Arka Gdynia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Valcarce

24'

A. Siemaszko← F. Hiszpański

28'

J. Łukowski

36'

J. Kiełb

45+1'

H. Memic

46'

Ł. Wolsztyński← H. Memić

63'

J. Łukowski

69'

Marcus Vinícius← A. Danch

73'

M. Marcjanik

75'

M. Rosołek

76'

Z. Petrović← M. Pervan

79'

J. Rybus← J. Kiełb

86'

R. Seweryś← M. Szpakowski

86'

90'

90+8'

90+9'

90+10'

90+10'

Korona

Arka

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: D. Nowak

76'▲Z. Petrović←▼M. Pervan

79'▲J. Rybus←▼J. Kiełb

86'▲R. Seweryś←▼M. Szpakowski

Korona Kielce substitutes

PetrovićRybusSeweryś

Manager: D. Marzec

24'▲A. Siemaszko←▼F. Hiszpański

46'▲Ł. Wolsztyński←▼H. Memić

69'▲Marcus Vinícius←▼A. Danch

Arka Gdynia substitutes

SiemaszkoWolsztyńskiVinícius

I Liga: Korona Kielce 3–3 Arka Gdynia

Korona Kielce and Arka Gdynia drew 3-3 in I Liga on May 29, 2021.

Goals: J. Łukowski (28', 63'), J. Kiełb (36'), M. Marcjanik (73'), M. Rosołek (75'), A. Deja (86').

The match was played at Suzuki Arena in Kielce.

Korona Kielce vs Arka Gdynia — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Korona Kielce 3–3 Arka Gdynia