Arka Gdynia 0–0 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Korona Kielce

10/8/2021

I Liga · Round 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arka Gdynia48%

×Draw26%

Korona Kielce26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Arka Gdynia

1.48

Korona Kielce

1.00

Arka Gdynia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 34 away

1.67

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.67

Korona Kielce

1.03

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

0.97

Korona Kielce

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

74%

Arka Gdynia or Korona Kielce

74%

Draw or Korona Kielce

52%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

24%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

77%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

43%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

19%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

63%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

26%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

65%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Korona Kielce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Korona Kielce attack 1.03 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

48%

level

26%

Korona Kielce scores more

26%

Arka Gdynia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Gasior

46'

M. Stępień← Luis Valcarce

46'

Z. Petrović← Filipe Oliveira

54'

D. Blanik

62'

A. Siemaszko← K. Czubak

64'

S. Milewski

81'

Marcus Vinícius← M. Rosołek

89'

M. Żebrowski← C. Alemán

Arka

Korona

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Marzec

46'▲M. Stępień←▼Luis Valcarce

62'▲A. Siemaszko←▼K. Czubak

81'▲Marcus Vinícius←▼M. Rosołek

89'▲M. Żebrowski←▼C. Alemán

Arka Gdynia substitutes

StępieńSiemaszkoViníciusŻebrowski

Manager: D. Nowak

46'▲Z. Petrović←▼Filipe Oliveira

Korona Kielce substitutes

Petrović