Arka Gdynia 0–0 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Korona Kielce

9/20/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 9Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia46%

×Draw24%

Korona Kielce30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.27

Arka Gdynia

1.64

Korona Kielce

1.27

Arka Gdynia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

1.59

creates per match

1.11

1.44

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Korona Kielce

1.11

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Korona Kielce

1.68

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Korona Kielce-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

70%

Arka Gdynia or Korona Kielce

76%

Draw or Korona Kielce

54%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

24%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

81%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

49%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

23%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

72%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

36%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

61%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.68 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Korona Kielce defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Korona Kielce attack 1.11 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

46%

level

24%

Korona Kielce scores more

30%

Arka Gdynia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. Hermoso

Arka Gdynia · D

7.3

Match Events

6'

25'

43'

46'

63'

P. Szysz← S. Kerk

63'

N. Rusyn← J. Oliveira

77'

A. Sidibe← A. Nguiamba

77'

M. Predenkiewicz← D. Kocyla

77'

V. Nikolov← Antonin

77'

M. Strzebonski← M. Remacle

80'

Bartłomiej Smolarczyk

83'

Kike Hermoso

84'

D. Abramowicz← D. Zator

90+3'

N. Niski← D. Blanik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArkaKorona

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots9

4Corners6

12Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target0

5Off Target4

3Blocked5

3Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

335Total Passes345

268Accurate Passes277

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0