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Komárno vs Gyori ETO FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Komárno
Komárno
FT
0 – 3
Gyori ETO FC
Gyori ETO FC
3/21/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3MOL Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Komárno39%
×Draw26%
Gyori ETO FC35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
1.42
Gyori ETO FC
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Komárno
2.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.67

allows per match

Komárno
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
0.83

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Gyori ETO FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Gyori ETO FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
65%
Komárno or Gyori ETO FC
74%
Draw or Gyori ETO FC
61%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
18%
Gyori ETO FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
76%
Komárno 2+ goals
41%
Komárno 3+ goals
17%
Gyori ETO FC 1+ goals
74%
Gyori ETO FC 2+ goals
38%
Gyori ETO FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
53%
Gyori ETO FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Gyori ETO FC away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 2.00 + Gyori ETO FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gyori ETO FC attack 1.67 + Komárno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Komárno scores more
39%
level
26%
Gyori ETO FC scores more
35%

Komárno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Komárno
Gyori
M. Radványi
Manager: M. Radványi
B. Borbely
Manager: B. Borbely

Friendlies Clubs: Komárno 0–3 Gyori ETO FC

Gyori ETO FC beat Komárno 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at MOL Aréna in Dunajská Streda.