Kjelsås 2–1 Asker: Result & Stats

Kjelsås

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Asker

K. Eriksen 90'

S. Martinussen 74'

R. Fazi 30'

4/27/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kjelsås54%

×Draw21%

Asker25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KjelsåsExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.33

Kjelsås

2.04

Asker

1.33

Kjelsås creates 53% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

2.27

creates per match

1.29

1.37

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Kjelsås

2.27

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Kjelsås

1.37

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw

75%

Kjelsås or Asker

79%

Draw or Asker

46%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+

32%

Asker wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals

87%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

60%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

33%

Asker 1+ goals

74%

Asker 2+ goals

38%

Asker 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

68%

Asker (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 2.27 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Asker attack 1.29 + Kjelsås defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kjelsås scores more

54%

level

21%

Asker scores more

25%

Kjelsås at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Fazi

46'

K. Lamin← J. Sture

46'

J. Broch← I. Hermansen

62'

J. Kenyi← K. Getz

70'

J. Holter← M. Ali Alzubi

71'

E. Adukonis← K. Syvertsen

71'

74'

79'

81'

83'

P. Askengren← J. Aslaksrud

86'

N. H. Kvifte← R. Fazi

87'

M. Jatta← R. Sorter

90+6'

P. Halvorsen← K. Eriksen

90'

K. Eriksen

Kjelsås

Asker

30

3

6

15

19

8

▼

Getz

14

▼

Sorter

18

Spiten-Ny

16

⚽

▼

Fazi

20

▼

Sesay

77

▼

24

3

17

22

⚽

Martinuss

28

▼

Hermansen

8

Hermansen

13

▼

Alzubi

21

Berge

25

▼

Sture

7

⚽

▼

Eriksen

9

▼

Aslaksrud

Manager: E. Kampen

46'▲K. Lamin←▼J. Sture

46'▲J. Broch←▼I. Hermansen

70'▲J. Holter←▼M. Ali Alzubi

83'▲P. Askengren←▼J. Aslaksrud

90+6'▲P. Halvorsen←▼K. Eriksen

Kjelsås substitutes

1Brauti6Lamin14Fredriksen15Broch18Emblem-Olsen19Askengren20Holter29Halvorsen

Manager: R. Bredal

62'▲J. Kenyi←▼K. Getz

71'▲E. Adukonis←▼K. Syvertsen

71'▲M. Baekken←▼L. Sesay

86'▲N. H. Kvifte←▼R. Fazi

87'▲M. Jatta←▼R. Sorter

Asker substitutes

1Normann10Adukonis11Baekken12Heggset17Arnesen22Emanuelsen27Kenyi33Kvifte42Jatta

2. Division - Group 2: Kjelsås 2–1 Asker

Kjelsås beat Asker 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: R. Fazi (30'), S. Martinussen (74'), K. Eriksen (90').

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.

Kjelsås vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Kjelsås 2–1 Asker