Asker 1–1 Kjelsås: Result & Stats

Asker

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kjelsås

S. Mauritz-Hansen 58'

R. Vinge 40'

4/18/2022

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Asker35%

×Draw23%

Kjelsås42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AskerExpected goals in this matchKjelsås

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.68

Asker

1.52

Kjelsås

1.68

Kjelsås creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 70 away

1.71

creates per match

1.56

1.79

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Asker

1.71

Kjelsås

1.56

allows per match

Asker

1.79

Kjelsås

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asker+0.00on par

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Kjelsås →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Asker or draw

58%

Asker or Kjelsås

77%

Draw or Kjelsås

65%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+

17%

Kjelsås wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals

78%

Asker 2+ goals

45%

Asker 3+ goals

20%

Kjelsås 1+ goals

81%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

50%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)

46%

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 1.71 + Kjelsås defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kjelsås attack 1.56 + Asker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Asker scores more

35%

level

23%

Kjelsås scores more

42%

Kjelsås at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

E. Willumsen← J. Flaten

40'

45'

46'

46'

58'

66'

74'

R. Y. Winston Paintsil

79'

K. Madsen← P. Vogt

85'

F. Gripsgård← R. Vinge

Asker

Kjelsås

1

5

6

4

21

26

7

▼

Flaten

14

⚽

▼

9

10

11

1

5

2

3

▼

Vogt

25

Arzani

16

Fazi

8

▼

Kadri

21

▼

Can

11

Skaug

7

⚽

Mauritz-H

14

Kastrati

Manager: V. Skogheim

46'▲T. Aarstad←▼B. Kadri

46'▲F. Kastrati←▼M. Can

79'▲K. Madsen←▼P. Vogt

Asker substitutes

9Aarstad10Kastrati6Madsen23Hauso24Pedersen26Fredhall38Groth

Manager: E. Kampen

20'▲E. Willumsen←▼J. Flaten

85'▲F. Gripsgård←▼R. Vinge

Kjelsås substitutes

15Willumsen25Gripsgård3Dusabe16Ottesen20Bonful23Rusten30Karlsen