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Asker vs Kjelsås — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Asker
Asker
CANC
00:00
Kjelsås
Kjelsås
4/2/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Asker31%
×Draw24%
Kjelsås45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asker
1.37
Kjelsås
1.69

Kjelsås creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Asker
1.20
Kjelsås
1.77

allows per match

Asker
1.60
Kjelsås
1.54

finishing

Asker+0.00on par
Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Kjelsås →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Asker or draw
55%
Asker or Kjelsås
76%
Draw or Kjelsås
69%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+
14%
Kjelsås wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals
75%
Asker 2+ goals
40%
Asker 3+ goals
16%
Kjelsås 1+ goals
82%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
50%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)
41%
Kjelsås (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 1.20 + Kjelsås defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kjelsås attack 1.77 + Asker defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Asker scores more
31%
level
24%
Kjelsås scores more
45%

Kjelsås at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asker face Kjelsås (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Asker hosting Kjelsås. Match starts April 2, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Asker host Kjelsås at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.