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Kingston City vs Goulburn Valley Suns — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
1 – 1
Goulburn Valley Suns
Goulburn Valley Suns
8/13/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 21Grange Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kingston City41%
×Draw22%
Goulburn Valley Suns37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.87
Goulburn Valley Suns
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Goulburn Valley Suns
1.41

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Goulburn Valley Suns
2.12

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Goulburn Valley Suns+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Goulburn Valley Suns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
63%
Kingston City or Goulburn Valley Suns
78%
Draw or Goulburn Valley Suns
59%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
22%
Goulburn Valley Suns wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
85%
Kingston City 2+ goals
56%
Kingston City 3+ goals
29%
Goulburn Valley Suns 1+ goals
83%
Goulburn Valley Suns 2+ goals
52%
Goulburn Valley Suns 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
53%
Goulburn Valley Suns (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Goulburn Valley Suns away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Goulburn Valley Suns defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.87

Goulburn Valley Suns attack 1.41 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kingston City scores more
41%
level
22%
Goulburn Valley Suns scores more
37%

Kingston City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kingston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Goulburn Valley Suns

Kingston City and Goulburn Valley Suns drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Grange Reserve - Pitch 1 in Hoppers Crossing.