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Goulburn Valley Suns vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Goulburn Valley Suns
Goulburn Valley Suns
FT
1 – 4
Kingston City
Kingston City
5/21/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10John McEwen Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Goulburn Valley Suns27%
×Draw21%
Kingston City52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goulburn Valley Suns
1.53
Kingston City
2.16

Kingston City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Goulburn Valley Suns
0.89
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Goulburn Valley Suns
2.58
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Goulburn Valley Suns+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goulburn Valley Suns ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Goulburn Valley Suns or draw
48%
Goulburn Valley Suns or Kingston City
79%
Draw or Kingston City
73%

Winning margin

Goulburn Valley Suns wins by 2+
12%
Kingston City wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Goulburn Valley Suns 1+ goals
78%
Goulburn Valley Suns 2+ goals
45%
Goulburn Valley Suns 3+ goals
20%
Kingston City 1+ goals
88%
Kingston City 2+ goals
63%
Kingston City 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Goulburn Valley Suns (draw refunded)
35%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goulburn Valley Suns at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goulburn Valley Suns attack 0.89 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Goulburn Valley Suns defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Goulburn Valley Suns scores more
27%
level
21%
Kingston City scores more
52%

Kingston City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kingston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Goulburn Valley Suns 1–4 Kingston City

Kingston City beat Goulburn Valley Suns 4-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at John McEwen Reserve in Shepparton.