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Goulburn Valley Suns vs Kingston City — Victoria Premier League 2 2026

Goulburn Valley Suns
Goulburn Valley Suns
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kingston City
Kingston City
4/11/2026Victoria Premier League 2Victoria Premier League 2 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Goulburn Valley Suns67%
×Draw18%
Kingston City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goulburn Valley Suns
2.44
Kingston City
1.09

Goulburn Valley Suns creates 124% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Goulburn Valley Suns
2.50
Kingston City
0.88

allows per match

Goulburn Valley Suns
1.30
Kingston City
2.38

finishing

Goulburn Valley Suns+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goulburn Valley Suns ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Goulburn Valley Suns or draw
85%
Goulburn Valley Suns or Kingston City
82%
Draw or Kingston City
33%

Winning margin

Goulburn Valley Suns wins by 2+
44%
Kingston City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Goulburn Valley Suns 1+ goals
91%
Goulburn Valley Suns 2+ goals
70%
Goulburn Valley Suns 3+ goals
43%
Kingston City 1+ goals
66%
Kingston City 2+ goals
30%
Kingston City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Goulburn Valley Suns (draw refunded)
81%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goulburn Valley Suns at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Kingston City away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goulburn Valley Suns attack 2.50 + Kingston City defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.44

Kingston City attack 0.88 + Goulburn Valley Suns defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Goulburn Valley Suns scores more
67%
level
18%
Kingston City scores more
15%

Goulburn Valley Suns at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Goulburn Valley Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goulburn Valley Suns vs Kingston City

Goulburn Valley Suns beat Kingston City 2-0 in Victoria Premier League 2 on April 11, 2026.