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Kings Hammer vs Fort Wayne — USL League Two 2026

Kings Hammer
Kings Hammer
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fort Wayne
Fort Wayne
6/14/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10CHCA Academy Stadium Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kings Hammer14%
×Draw23%
Fort Wayne63%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kings Hammer
0.71
Fort Wayne
1.79

Fort Wayne creates 152% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kings Hammer
0.86
Fort Wayne
1.57

allows per match

Kings Hammer
2.00
Fort Wayne
0.57

finishing

Kings Hammer+0.00on par
Fort Wayne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kings Hammer ↓

Fort Wayne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kings Hammer or draw
37%
Kings Hammer or Fort Wayne
77%
Draw or Fort Wayne
86%

Winning margin

Kings Hammer wins by 2+
4%
Fort Wayne wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Kings Hammer 1+ goals
51%
Kings Hammer 2+ goals
16%
Kings Hammer 3+ goals
4%
Fort Wayne 1+ goals
83%
Fort Wayne 2+ goals
53%
Fort Wayne 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)
18%
Fort Wayne (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kings Hammer at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Fort Wayne away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kings Hammer attack 0.86 + Fort Wayne defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Fort Wayne attack 1.57 + Kings Hammer defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kings Hammer scores more
14%
level
23%
Fort Wayne scores more
63%

Fort Wayne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fort Wayne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kings Hammer vs Fort Wayne

Fort Wayne beat Kings Hammer 1-0 in USL League Two on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at CHCA Academy Stadium Field in Cincinnati, Ohio.