Fort Wayne 2–0 Kings Hammer: Result & Stats

Fort Wayne

FT

2 – 0

Kings Hammer

7/13/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 17Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fort Wayne68%

×Draw20%

Kings Hammer12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fort WayneExpected goals in this matchKings Hammer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.74

Fort Wayne

2.05

Kings Hammer

0.74

Fort Wayne creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.43

creates per match

0.78

0.71

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fort Wayne

2.43

Kings Hammer

0.78

allows per match

Fort Wayne

0.71

Kings Hammer

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fort Wayne+0.00on par

Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort Wayne ↓

Kings Hammer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fort Wayne or draw

88%

Fort Wayne or Kings Hammer

80%

Draw or Kings Hammer

32%

Winning margin

Fort Wayne wins by 2+

43%

Kings Hammer wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fort Wayne 1+ goals

87%

Fort Wayne 2+ goals

61%

Fort Wayne 3+ goals

33%

Kings Hammer 1+ goals

52%

Kings Hammer 2+ goals

17%

Kings Hammer 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fort Wayne (draw refunded)

84%

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fort Wayne at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Kings Hammer away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fort Wayne attack 2.43 + Kings Hammer defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Kings Hammer attack 0.78 + Fort Wayne defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fort Wayne scores more

68%

level

20%

Kings Hammer scores more

12%

Fort Wayne at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fort Wayne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff