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Fort Wayne vs Kings Hammer — USL League Two 2026

Fort Wayne
Fort Wayne
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kings Hammer
Kings Hammer
7/12/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 19Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fort Wayne66%
×Draw19%
Kings Hammer15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fort Wayne
2.17
Kings Hammer
0.92

Fort Wayne creates 136% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fort Wayne
2.50
Kings Hammer
1.00

allows per match

Fort Wayne
0.83
Kings Hammer
1.83

finishing

Fort Wayne+0.00on par
Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort Wayne ↓

Kings Hammer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fort Wayne or draw
85%
Fort Wayne or Kings Hammer
81%
Draw or Kings Hammer
34%

Winning margin

Fort Wayne wins by 2+
42%
Kings Hammer wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fort Wayne 1+ goals
89%
Fort Wayne 2+ goals
64%
Fort Wayne 3+ goals
36%
Kings Hammer 1+ goals
60%
Kings Hammer 2+ goals
23%
Kings Hammer 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fort Wayne (draw refunded)
82%
Kings Hammer (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fort Wayne at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Kings Hammer away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fort Wayne attack 2.50 + Kings Hammer defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kings Hammer attack 1.00 + Fort Wayne defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fort Wayne scores more
66%
level
19%
Kings Hammer scores more
15%

Fort Wayne at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fort Wayne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Fort Wayne 4–0 Kings Hammer

Fort Wayne beat Kings Hammer 4-0 in USL League Two on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Bishop John D’Arcy Stadium in Fort Wayne, Indiana.