Kick Start 0–2 Deacons: Result & Stats

Kick Start

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deacons

2/16/2025

Premier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kick Start67%

×Draw16%

Deacons17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kick StartExpected goals in this matchDeacons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.50

Kick Start

3.00

Deacons

1.50

Kick Start creates 100% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

2.61

creates per match

1.60

1.39

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Kick Start

2.61

Deacons

1.60

allows per match

Kick Start

1.39

Deacons

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par

Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

Deacons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw

83%

Kick Start or Deacons

84%

Draw or Deacons

33%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+

47%

Deacons wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals

95%

Kick Start 2+ goals

79%

Kick Start 3+ goals

56%

Deacons 1+ goals

78%

Deacons 2+ goals

44%

Deacons 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)

80%

Deacons (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.61 + Deacons defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.00

Deacons attack 1.60 + Kick Start defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kick Start scores more

67%

level

16%

Deacons scores more

17%

Kick Start at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff