Deacons 3–2 Kick Start: Result & Stats

Deacons

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Kick Start

4/17/2025

Premier League · Round 7Valerie Playing Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Deacons23%

×Draw20%

Kick Start57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeaconsExpected goals in this matchKick Start

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.28

Deacons

1.38

Kick Start

2.28

Kick Start creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

1.36

creates per match

1.83

2.73

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Deacons

1.36

Kick Start

1.83

allows per match

Deacons

2.73

Kick Start

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par

Kick Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Kick Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Deacons or draw

43%

Deacons or Kick Start

80%

Draw or Kick Start

77%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+

10%

Kick Start wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals

75%

Deacons 2+ goals

40%

Deacons 3+ goals

16%

Kick Start 1+ goals

90%

Kick Start 2+ goals

66%

Kick Start 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)

28%

Kick Start (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

Kick Start away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.36 + Kick Start defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kick Start attack 1.83 + Deacons defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deacons scores more

23%

level

20%

Kick Start scores more

57%

Kick Start at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff