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Deacons vs Kick Start — Premier League 2019

Deacons
Deacons
FT
0 – 2
Kick Start
Kick Start
4/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deacons28%
×Draw22%
Kick Start50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
1.41
Kick Start
1.94

Kick Start creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.64
Kick Start
1.75

allows per match

Deacons
2.12
Kick Start
1.18

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
Kick Start+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Kick Start →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
50%
Deacons or Kick Start
78%
Draw or Kick Start
72%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
12%
Kick Start wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
76%
Deacons 2+ goals
41%
Deacons 3+ goals
17%
Kick Start 1+ goals
86%
Kick Start 2+ goals
58%
Kick Start 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
36%
Kick Start (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Kick Start away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Kick Start defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kick Start attack 1.75 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deacons scores more
28%
level
22%
Kick Start scores more
50%

Kick Start at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Deacons 0–2 Kick Start

Kick Start beat Deacons 2-0 in Premier League on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.