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Khimki vs Chernomorets — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Khimki
Khimki
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
R. Mejia 85'
Z. Bakaev 82'
L. Vera 78', 65'
A. Rudenko 41'
O. Trofimov 8'
V. Krotov 43'
1/31/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hotel Rixos Premium Futbol Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khimki63%
×Draw21%
Chernomorets16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
2.05
Chernomorets
0.92

Khimki creates 123% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.85
Chernomorets
0.75

allows per match

Khimki
1.08
Chernomorets
2.25

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
84%
Khimki or Chernomorets
79%
Draw or Chernomorets
37%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
39%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
87%
Khimki 2+ goals
61%
Khimki 3+ goals
33%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
60%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
23%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
80%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.85 + Chernomorets defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

Chernomorets attack 0.75 + Khimki defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Khimki scores more
63%
level
21%
Chernomorets scores more
16%

Khimki at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
O. Trofimov
41'
A. Rudenko
43'
V. Krotov
65'
L. Vera
78'
L. Vera
82'
Z. Bakaev
85'
R. Mejia
Khimki
Chernomorets
Franc Artiga
Manager: Franc Artiga
O. Vasilenko
Manager: O. Vasilenko

Match Recap: Khimki vs Chernomorets

Khimki beat Chernomorets 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2025.

Goals: O. Trofimov (8'), A. Rudenko (41'), V. Krotov (43'), L. Vera (65', 78'), Z. Bakaev (82'), R. Mejia (85').

The match was played at Hotel Rixos Premium Futbol Sahası in Belek.