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Chernomorets vs Khimki — First League 2018

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
S. Saaduev 35'
T. Kasimov 90'
A. Koryan 71'
R. Netfullin 32'
11/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chernomorets36%
×Draw27%
Khimki36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.23
Khimki
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
1.27
Khimki
1.38

allows per match

Chernomorets
1.08
Khimki
1.20

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
64%
Chernomorets or Khimki
73%
Draw or Khimki
64%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
16%
Khimki wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
35%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
13%
Khimki 1+ goals
71%
Khimki 2+ goals
35%
Khimki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
50%
Khimki (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 1.27 + Khimki defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Khimki attack 1.38 + Chernomorets defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chernomorets scores more
36%
level
27%
Khimki scores more
36%

Chernomorets at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Sergey Varatynov
14'
Denis Fomin
23'
N. Kumburović← D. Korobov
32'
R. Netfullin
35'
S. Saaduev
45'
Khetag Khosonov
58'
S. Basyrov← D. Gurchenko
61'
Petar Golubović
63'
A. Mokhammad← A. Rudenko
63'
L. Skvortsov← D. Stepanov
63'
T. Kasimov← S. Varatynov
65'
Shamil Saaduev
68'
Nikola Kumburović
71'
A. Koryan
72'
Viktor Garaev
75'
I. Berkovskiy← A. Koryan
82'
K. Panchenko← B. Magomedov
83'
O. Krasilnichenko← A. Antonov
84'
Sergey Terekhov
88'
Stanislav Basyrov
90'
T. Kasimov

Statistics

ChernomoretsKhimki
Overview
2Corners7
Discipline
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1

First League: Chernomorets 1–3 Khimki

Khimki beat Chernomorets 3-1 in First League on November 5, 2023.

Goals: R. Netfullin (32'), S. Saaduev (35'), A. Koryan (71'), T. Kasimov (90').

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.