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Khimki vs Chernomorets — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
T. Kasimov 76'
A. Rudenko 48' (pen)
A. Voropaev 8'
5/25/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Khimki49%
×Draw26%
Chernomorets25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.50
Chernomorets
0.99

Khimki creates 52% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.70
Chernomorets
1.04

allows per match

Khimki
0.94
Chernomorets
1.29

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
75%
Khimki or Chernomorets
74%
Draw or Chernomorets
51%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
25%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
78%
Khimki 2+ goals
44%
Khimki 3+ goals
19%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
63%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
26%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
66%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.70 + Chernomorets defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chernomorets attack 1.04 + Khimki defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khimki scores more
49%
level
26%
Chernomorets scores more
25%

Khimki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Voropaev
22'
Artem Voropaev
25'
O. Isaenko← D. Stepanov
25'
B. Magomedov← A. Koryan
40'
D. Gurchenko← S. Puchkov
46'
S. Abdullahi← R. Yuzepchuk
46'
T. Kasimov← I. Sadygov
46'
I. Rodionov← N. Nikiforov
48'
A. RudenkoPenalty
62'
Petar Golubović
71'
A. Bezchasnyuk← O. Krasilnichenko
71'
V. Adaev← A. Antonov
76'
T. Kasimov
82'
Ilya Rodionov
89'
D. Yakovlev← D. Gurchenko
90+4'
Ruslan Ozdoev
90+1'
R. Ozdoev← A. Rudenko

Statistics

KhimkiChernomorets
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Khimki 2–1 Chernomorets

Khimki beat Chernomorets 2-1 in First League on May 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Voropaev (8'), A. Rudenko (48' pen), T. Kasimov (76').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.