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Khimki vs Baltika — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Baltika
Baltika
9/15/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki41%
×Draw27%
Baltika32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.36
Baltika
1.18

Khimki creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 108 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
68%
Khimki or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
59%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
19%
Baltika wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
74%
Khimki 2+ goals
39%
Khimki 3+ goals
16%
Baltika 1+ goals
69%
Baltika 2+ goals
33%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
56%
Baltika (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Baltika attack 1.35 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khimki scores more
41%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
32%

Khimki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Khimki 3–3 Baltika

Khimki and Baltika drew 3-3 in First League on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Arena Khimki (Khimki).