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Baltika vs Khimki — Cup 2019

Baltika
Baltika
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
10/27/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 4Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baltika46%
×Draw27%
Khimki27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.43
Khimki
1.04

Baltika creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.31
Khimki
1.00

allows per match

Baltika
1.08
Khimki
1.54

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
73%
Baltika or Khimki
73%
Draw or Khimki
54%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
22%
Khimki wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
76%
Baltika 2+ goals
42%
Baltika 3+ goals
17%
Khimki 1+ goals
65%
Khimki 2+ goals
28%
Khimki 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
63%
Khimki (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.31 + Khimki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Khimki attack 1.00 + Baltika defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baltika scores more
46%
level
27%
Khimki scores more
27%

Baltika at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Baltika 0–0 Khimki

Baltika and Khimki drew 0-0 in Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.