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Baltika vs Khimki — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
3/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion Baltika (Kaliningrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baltika39%
×Draw28%
Khimki32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.21
Khimki
1.07

Baltika creates 13% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 51 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.25
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
68%
Baltika or Khimki
72%
Draw or Khimki
61%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
17%
Khimki wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
70%
Baltika 2+ goals
34%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%
Khimki 1+ goals
66%
Khimki 2+ goals
29%
Khimki 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
55%
Khimki (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Khimki attack 1.39 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baltika scores more
39%
level
28%
Khimki scores more
32%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Khimki

Baltika beat Khimki 2-1 in First League on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika (Kaliningrad).