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Khimki vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
4/8/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki48%
×Draw27%
Arsenal Tula25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.44
Arsenal Tula
0.97

Khimki creates 48% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 68 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
75%
Khimki or Arsenal Tula
73%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
52%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
24%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
76%
Khimki 2+ goals
42%
Khimki 3+ goals
18%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
62%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
25%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
65%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khimki scores more
48%
level
27%
Arsenal Tula scores more
25%

Khimki at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Khimki 3–2 Arsenal Tula

Khimki beat Arsenal Tula 3-2 in First League on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.