Khimki 1–0 Arsenal Tula: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arsenal Tula

12/11/2020

Premier League · Round 18Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki47%

×Draw26%

Arsenal Tula27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.06

Khimki

1.49

Arsenal Tula

1.06

Khimki creates 41% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.23

creates per match

0.82

1.30

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Arsenal Tula

0.82

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Arsenal Tula

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

73%

Khimki or Arsenal Tula

74%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

53%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

23%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

77%

Khimki 2+ goals

44%

Khimki 3+ goals

19%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

65%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

29%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

64%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Arsenal Tula attack 0.82 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimki scores more

47%

level

26%

Arsenal Tula scores more

27%

Khimki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff