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Arsenal Tula vs Khimki — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
9/11/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Arsenal Tula36%
×Draw28%
Khimki37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Khimki
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
63%
Arsenal Tula or Khimki
72%
Draw or Khimki
64%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
15%
Khimki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
69%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
33%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
11%
Khimki 1+ goals
70%
Khimki 2+ goals
33%
Khimki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
49%
Khimki (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Khimki attack 1.39 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
36%
level
28%
Khimki scores more
37%

Khimki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arsenal Tula 0–2 Khimki

Khimki beat Arsenal Tula 2-0 in First League on September 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.