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KFUM Oslo vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
M. Ndiaye 80'
D. Ulvestad 3'
10/19/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

KFUM Oslo54%
×Draw24%
Kristiansund BK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Oslo
1.71
Kristiansund BK
0.99

KFUM Oslo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

KFUM Oslo
1.43
Kristiansund BK
0.92

allows per match

KFUM Oslo
1.05
Kristiansund BK
2.00

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.27scores less
Kristiansund BK+0.04on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw
78%
KFUM Oslo or Kristiansund BK
76%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
46%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
30%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
82%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
51%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
24%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
63%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
26%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
71%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.05 · 25 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.43 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kristiansund BK attack 0.92 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more
54%
level
24%
Kristiansund BK scores more
22%

KFUM Oslo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
S. SandalKFUM OsloKFUM Oslo · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
D. Ulvestad↳ A. Kryger
46'
I. Hoffmann← A. Kryger
50'
Sverre Hakami Sandal
61'
B. Njie← M. Njie
61'
B. Kristensen← H. Udahl
66'
S. Skeide← W. Igor
66'
R. Corlu← S. Kilen
66'
A. Ndour← H. Sletsjoe
79'
M. Ndiaye← H. Hoseth
79'
I. Jelicic← M. Isah
80'
M. Ndiaye↳ B. Njie

Possession

65%KFUM

Shots

20KFUM

Pass accuracy

56%KFUM

Statistics

KFUMKristiansund
Overview
65%Possession35%
20Total Shots4
2.15Expected Goals (xG)0.29
4Corners2
20Fouls4
Shots
20Total Shots4
5On Target2
9Off Target1
6Blocked1
10Inside Box2
10Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
654Total Passes356
570Accurate Passes240
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
20Fouls4
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Kristiansund BK

KFUM Oslo and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on October 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Ulvestad (3'), M. Ndiaye (80').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 4.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.