KFUM Oslo 1–2 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kristiansund BK

M. Ndiaye 79'

J. Isaksen 59'

H. Mikaelsson 9'

11/23/2024

Eliteserien · Round 29KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

KFUM Oslo54%

×Draw24%

Kristiansund BK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.99

KFUM Oslo

1.71

Kristiansund BK

0.99

KFUM Oslo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.43

creates per match

0.92

1.05

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.43

Kristiansund BK

0.92

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.05

Kristiansund BK

2.00

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.27scores less

Kristiansund BK+0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

78%

KFUM Oslo or Kristiansund BK

76%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

46%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

30%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

82%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

51%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

24%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

63%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

26%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

71%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.05 · 25 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.43 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kristiansund BK attack 0.92 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

54%

level

24%

Kristiansund BK scores more

22%

KFUM Oslo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

H. Aleesami

KFUM Oslo · D

7.6

Match Events

9'

H. Mikaelsson

50'

S. Akinyemi← A. Aleesami

59'

J. Isaksen↳ O. Sivertsen

62'

M. Ndiaye← Moussa Njie

65'

C. Aasbak← M. Rakneberg

71'

Michael Lansing

74'

A. Hopmark← D. Tufekcic

74'

F. Nyenetue← O. Sivertsen

79'

81'

81'

82'

82'

K. Lien← H. Mikaelsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMKristiansund

Overview

72%Possession28%

6Total Shots9

0.81Expected Goals (xG)2.79

3Corners4

5Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots9

3On Target7

3Off Target1

0Blocked1

6Inside Box9

0Outside Box0

Passing

72%Possession28%

706Total Passes286

594Accurate Passes180

84%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0

Eliteserien: KFUM Oslo 1–2 Kristiansund BK

Kristiansund BK beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 in Eliteserien on November 23, 2024.

Goals: H. Mikaelsson (9'), J. Isaksen (59'), M. Ndiaye (79').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (72%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: KFUM Oslo 1–2 Kristiansund BK